Robin_Hanson2 comments on The Apocalypse Bet - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 09 August 2007 05:23PM

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Comment author: Robin_Hanson2 09 August 2007 08:11:55PM 18 points [-]

I'm afraid all the bets like this will just recover interest rates, which give the exchange rate between resources on one date and resources on another date. The interest rate combines both preferences to have stuff in some dates over others, and beliefs about whether people will actually have to make good on their promises to pay in the future. The problem is that it is very hard to disentangle these two effects.