"Sebastian, the agreement would have to obligate the estate or descendants of a 50-year-old who wanted to bet on 2080. Again, the main objective is to let people put their money where their mouth is - let Kurzweil bet against Hofstadter's "more than 100 years to AI" pronouncement, even if the payoff is made by Kurzweil's estate to Hofstadter's estate (do they have kids)?"

Surely a bet obligating one's estate (beyond the reach of most of the incentive effects of near-term bets) won't add much value over this:

http://www.longbets.org/1