michael_vassar3 comments on The Apocalypse Bet - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 09 August 2007 05:23PM

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Comment author: michael_vassar3 10 August 2007 07:23:56PM 1 point [-]

I won't try to argue for particular opportunities here on OB. Suffice it to say that if markets price in a random mix of the assumption that things will stay the same and the assumption that trends will stay the same because participants don't distinguish between those two statements incoherence exists and arbitrage is possible.