persephonehazard comments on Your Strength as a Rationalist - Less Wrong
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If everyone regularly talked to strangers on trains, and exactly once lied to such a stranger, it would still be pretty safe to assume that any given train-stranger is being honest with you.
Actually, yes, you're entirely right.
In conversations I've had about this with friends - good grief, there's a giant flashing anecdata alert if ever I did see one, but it's the best we've got to go off here - I would suspect that people do it often enough that it's a reasonable thing to consider in a situation like the one being discussed here, though.
Not that I think it's a bad thing that the person in question didn't, mind you. It would be a very easy option not to consider.