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a_mshri comments on Your Strength as a Rationalist - Less Wrong

69 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 August 2007 12:21AM

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Comment author: a_mshri 20 September 2011 10:58:10PM *  2 points [-]

I feel really uncomfortable with this idea: "EITHER YOUR MODEL IS FALSE OR THIS STORY IS WRONG."

I think this statement suffers from the same limitations of propositional logic; consequently, it is not applicable to many real life situations.

Most of the times, our model contains rules of this type (at least if we are rationalists): Event A occurs in situation B with probability C, where C is not 0 or 1. Also, life experiences teach us that we should update the probabilities in our model over time. So beside the uncertainty caused by the probability C, there is also uncertainty resulted from our degree of belief in the correctness of the rule itself. The situation becomes more complicated when the problem is cost sensitive.

I got your point (I hope so) and I'm definitely not trying to say "IT IS WORNG" but I think it is true to some degree.