DanielLC comments on Open thread, August 26 - September 1, 2013 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: philh 26 August 2013 09:00PM

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Comment author: DanielLC 27 August 2013 04:30:15AM 4 points [-]

I don't understand. What's wrong with 80%?

Comment author: So8res 27 August 2013 04:53:57AM *  15 points [-]

I achieved good calibration by paying attention to evidence and avoiding known biases as well as I was able. Once I had established reliable calibration, I experienced temptation to justify my first intuitive instinct by asserting my own calibration.

My calibration was based upon mediating my intuitions with reason. I can't invoke it to trust any old estimate that comes out of my mouth: if I did then I could say whatever I want and trust it to be calibrated (which would yield probability estimates out of touch with reality). Hence the parallels to Löb's theorem.