Petroleum engineering. Would non-oil energy sources cause pay to drop over the next 40 years?
Yes. Also even aside from that there is volatility in fossil fuel prices, and thus demand for fossil fuel occupations. Probably too narrow a specialization for you there, without enough compensating benefits.
Actuarial math. If I understand correctly, actuaries had high pay because they were basically a cartel, artificially limiting the supply of certifications to a certain number each year. And I've heard that people that used to hire actuaries now hire cheaper equivalents, so pay could be less over the next 40 years.
You can do better than that at Stanford, e.g. higher-end fields within finance, or entrepreneurship, or high-end research.
Pre-med.
Medicine has many virtues, but you don't need to sculpt your choice of major around it even if you want this option open: as long as you take and get A grades in the pre-requisite classes, success in any major (with appropriate extracurriculars and test scores) can get you admitted to medical school.
Quantitative finance
Finance can easily beat CS if you don't become an entrepreneur in earnings, but they are closer in risk-neutral returns if one goes the entrepreneurial route. Much would depend on which is a better fit for you.
a science major plus a humanities major has lower earnings than the science major alone; greatest returns are achieved by pairing a math/science major with an engineering major, which increases earnings "up to 30%" above the math/science major alone. I'd guess these effects are largely not causation, but correlation caused by conscientiousness/ambition causing both double majors and higher earnings.
Substantially, but STEM majors are independently desired in particular fields, and act as credible signals to employers.
What other things could increase earnings? Doing an internship every summer.
Yes.
Maybe I could try to get into a leadership position at a student club or something.
Founding things is better, particularly something you actually want to do so that you will put more into it and get more value out of it.
Honors programs, or doing research. Do employers care about this?
Research is most useful for getting a sense of/preparing for/applying to PhD programs and academia.
Studying abroad.
Doubtful. Most study abroad programs push you towards taking less useful courses and being isolated from great things at Stanford (which has a higher density of good connections and resources than the usual study abroad sites).
they are closer in risk-neutral returns if one goes the entrepreneurial route
I would be very interested in some source for this where I could read about it in more detail.
If someone asked me, then based on a remark I came across at 80,000 Hours, my advice for choosing a high-earning career would now simply be to choose finance if your "ability" (mainly IQ) is sufficiently high and medicine if not.
Edit: It would probably be easier to find the info if I could read 80,000 Hours here in China...sigh.
I'd like to solicit advice since I'm starting at Stanford this Fall and I'm interested in optimal philanthropy.
First off, what should I major in? I have experience in programming and math, so I'm thinking of majoring in CS, possibly with a second major or a minor in applied math. But switching costs are still extremely low at the moment, so I should consider other fields.
Some majors that could have higher lifetime earnings than straight CS:
Thoughts?
Stanford actually has salary data for 2011-2012 graduates by major. CS has highest earnings, by quite far. The data is incomplete because few people responded and some groups were omitted for privacy, so we don't know what e.g. petroleum engineers or double majors earned.
Should I double-major? There are some earnings statistics here; to summarize, two majors in the same field doesn't help; a science major plus a humanities major has lower earnings than the science major alone; greatest returns are achieved by pairing a math/science major with an engineering major, which increases earnings "up to 30%" above the math/science major alone. I'd guess these effects are largely not causation, but correlation caused by conscientiousness/ambition causing both double majors and higher earnings.
I could also get minors. I'm planning to very carefully look over the requirements for each major and minor, since there do seem to be some cheap gains. A math minor can be done in one quarter, for instance; a math major takes only a bit more than two quarters.
I have a table with the unit requirements of each combination of majors and minors. Most students take 15 units a quarter. Here are some major/minor combinations I could do:
Cal Newport argues that this sort of thing a bad idea because hard schedules do not actually impress employers more.
Would employers care about double majors in undergrad if I also get a graduate degree? I will do a master's degree or a PhD, partly because those make it a lot easier to emigrate to the US. (I'm from South Africa, which doesn't have much of a software industry.)
What other things could increase earnings?
Many thanks for all advice given!
EDIT: I used a scoring rule to rank all combinations of majors and minors in CS, math, economics and MS&E (management science and engineering) according to practicality and estimated effect on earnings. Unit estimates include all breadth requirements etc., assuming I don't take stupid courses. Here's the top 20; the top 10 all look pretty good:
Another option is to major or minor in M&CS (mathematical and computational sciences) instead of math or CS separately.
EDIT 2: Here is a graph of graduates' salaries by major. Y-axis is salary of 2011-2012 Stanford graduates. X-axis is degree: 1 is BA/BS, 2 is MA/MS, 3 is PhD; intermediate values are for groups containing two degree-levels. The sample size is tiny because only 30% of students responded, and some groups were omitted for privacy.