On problems that are drawn from a barrel of causally similar problems, where human optimism runs rampant and unforeseen troubles are common, the Outside View beats the Inside View.

Does anyone want to argue that Eliezer's criteria for using the outside view are wrong, or don't apply here?

"Optimism" is one kind of distortion - and "paranoia" is another kind.

Highlighting "optimism" distortions while ignoring "paranoid" ones is a typical result of paranoid distortions.