Let's even grant that.
How about factoring in "plans to live forever through science"? That's probably the most relevant prior information.
Estimate P(never heard of cryonics | read tons of science and scifi books and researches interests and plans on living forever through science). Isn't that basically Harry before magic came along? He somehow missed mention of cryonics when he looked into means to live forever?
I missed it completely and was doing much the same thing at that age. I actually ran right over cryonics - it showed up in Artemis Fowl and my absurdity heuristic/Colfer's tone tossed it aside.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 98. The previous thread is at nearly 500 comments.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system.
Also: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: