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RichardKennaway comments on Probability and radical uncertainty - Less Wrong
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Comments (71)
Going back to the basic question about the black box:
Too small to be worth considering. I might as well ask, what's the probability that I'll find $2 hidden half way up the nearest tree? Nothing has been claimed about the black box to specifically draw "it will pay you $2 for $1" out of hypothesis space.
Hmm... given that the previous several boxes have either paid $2 or done nothing, it seems like that primes the hypothesis that the next in the series also pays $2 or does nothing. (I'm not actually disagreeing, but doesn't that argument seem reasonable?)
Priming a hypothesis merely draws it to attention; it does not make it more likely. Every piece of spam, every con game, "primes the hypothesis" that it is genuine. It also "primes the hypothesis" that it is not. "Priming the hypothesis" is no more evidence than a purple giraffe is evidence of the blackness of crows.
Explicltly avoiding saying that it does pay $2, and saying instead that it is "interesting", well, that pretty much stomps the "priming" into a stain on the sidewalk.
.... purple giraffes are evidence of the blackness of crows, though. Just, really really terrible evidence.
Well, yes. As is the mere presence of the idea of $2 for $1 terrible evidence that the black box will do any such thing.
Eliezer speaks in the Twelve Virtues of letting oneself be as light as a leaf, blown unresistingly by the wind of evidence, but evidence of this sort is on the level of the individual molecules and Brownian motion of that leaf.
It depends on your priors