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Bayeslisk comments on Probability and radical uncertainty - Less Wrong
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I am pattern-matching from fiction on "black box with evil-looking inscriptions on it". Those do not tend to end well for anyone. Also, what do you mean by strong evidence against that the box is less harmful than a given random object from Thingspace? I can /barely sort of/ see "not a random object from Thingspace"; I cannot see "EV(U(spoopy creppy black box)) > EV(U(object from Thingspace))".
EBWOP: On further reflection I find that since most of Thingspace instantaneously destroys the universe,
EV(U(spoopy creppy black box)) >>>
EV(U(object from Thingspace)).
However, what I was trying to get at was that
EV(U(spoopy creppy black box)) <=
EV(U(representative object from-class: chance-based deal boxes with "normal" outcomes)) <=
EV(U(representative object from-class: chance-based deal boxes with Thingspace-like outcomes)) <=
EV(U(representative object from-class: chance-based deal boxes with terrifyingly creatively imaginable outcomes))