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dspeyer comments on Probability and radical uncertainty - Less Wrong
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One aspect of what I consider the correct solution is that the only question that needs to be answered is "do I think putting a coin in the box has positive or negative utility", and one can answer that without any guess about what it is actually going to do.
What is your base rate for boxes being able to drive you mad if you put a coin in them?
Can you imagine any mechanism whereby a box would drive you mad if you put a coin in it? (I can't.)
Given that I'm inside a hypothetical situation proposed on lesswrong, the likelihood of being inside a Lovecraft crossover or something similar is about .001. Assuming a Lovecraft crossover, the likelihood of a box marked in eldritch runes containing some form of Far Realm portal is around .05. So say .0005 from that method, which is what was on my mind when I wrote that.