checker comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong
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If all you have is some generic crime data, then more crime in a region can indicate that the Mafia is strong. On the other hand, Mafias keep their own neighborhoods, and the Mafia sometimes can suppress police activity through corruption, so a very low crime rate can indicate that the Mafia is strong.
Of course, background details would suggest which of these is indicated by the evidence