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RomanDavis comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong
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If all you have is some generic crime data, then more crime in a region can indicate that the Mafia is strong. On the other hand, Mafias keep their own neighborhoods, and the Mafia sometimes can suppress police activity through corruption, so a very low crime rate can indicate that the Mafia is strong.
Of course, background details would suggest which of these is indicated by the evidence
The crime rate has gone up. This means that everything is getting worse and the police are ineffective.
The crime rate has gone up. This means that the police are getting better at catching formerly clandestine criminal behavior.
It would be possible to distinguish between those hypotheses by looking at the ratio of crimes reported to crimes successfully prosecuted.