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Nisan comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong
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Hi Eliezer, That's another great post, I very much enjoyed reading even though there are gaps in my understanding. I'm new here so I have lots to learn. I wonder if you could kindly explain what you mean by: "Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality; if you are equally good at explaining any outcome you have zero knowledge. " Thanks, Lou
Welcome to Less Wrong!
A belief is useless unless it makes predictions. Making Beliefs Pay Rent gives a couple examples of "beliefs" that are useless because they don't make any predictions.
A belief from which you can derive any prediction is just as useless. Your Strength as a Rationalist and the beginning of A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation give examples of people trying too hard to make their beliefs explain their observations; they fail to discover that their beliefs are incorrect.