Carinthium comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 August 2007 08:34PM

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Comment author: Tom_McCabe 13 August 2007 12:01:42AM 17 points [-]

Frank: It is impossible for A and ~A to both be evidence for B. If a lack of sabotage is evidence for a fifth column, then an actual sabotage event must be evidence *against* a fifth column. Obviously, had there been an actual instance of sabotage, nobody would have thought that way- they would have used the sabotage as more "evidence" for keeping the Japanese locked up. It's the Salem witch trials, only in a more modern form- if the woman/Japanese has committed crimes, this is obviously evidence for "guilty"; if they are innocent of any wrongdoing, this too is a proof, for criminals like to appear especially virtuous to gain sympathy.

Comment author: Carinthium 27 November 2010 01:42:34AM 2 points [-]

BTW, what would you consider evidence for a genuine attempt to lull the government into a false sense of security (in an analagous situation)?

Comment author: JacekLach 08 December 2010 10:35:50PM *  12 points [-]

Lack of sabotage is obviously evidence for a fifth column trying to lull the government, given the fifth column exists, since the opposite - sabotage occuring - is very strong evidence against that.

However lack of sabotage is still much stronger evidence towards the fifth column not existing.

Comment author: bigjeff5 29 January 2011 12:46:21AM 7 points [-]

The takeaway is that if you are going to argue that X group is dangerous because they will commit Y act, you cannot use a lack of Y as weak evidence that X exists, because then Y would be strong evidence that X does not exist, and Y is what you are afraid X is going to do!

You would be much better off using the fact that no sabotage occurred as weak evidence that the 5th column was preventing sabotage.

If there is other evidence that suggests the 5th column exists and that they are dangerous, that is the evidence that should be used. Making up non-evidence (which is actually counter evidence) is not the way to go about it. There are ways of handling court cases that must remain confidential (though it would certainly make the court look bad, it is the right way to do it).