bigjeff5 comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 August 2007 08:34PM

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Comment author: JacekLach 08 December 2010 10:35:50PM *  12 points [-]

Lack of sabotage is obviously evidence for a fifth column trying to lull the government, given the fifth column exists, since the opposite - sabotage occuring - is very strong evidence against that.

However lack of sabotage is still much stronger evidence towards the fifth column not existing.

Comment author: bigjeff5 29 January 2011 12:46:21AM 7 points [-]

The takeaway is that if you are going to argue that X group is dangerous because they will commit Y act, you cannot use a lack of Y as weak evidence that X exists, because then Y would be strong evidence that X does not exist, and Y is what you are afraid X is going to do!

You would be much better off using the fact that no sabotage occurred as weak evidence that the 5th column was preventing sabotage.

If there is other evidence that suggests the 5th column exists and that they are dangerous, that is the evidence that should be used. Making up non-evidence (which is actually counter evidence) is not the way to go about it. There are ways of handling court cases that must remain confidential (though it would certainly make the court look bad, it is the right way to do it).