omeganaut comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 August 2007 08:34PM

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Comment author: bigjeff5 29 January 2011 01:10:57AM 2 points [-]

In that case, the two cancel each other out, and both types of evidence are worthless.

You can run it through Bayes Theorom.

This is like a test that predicts an outcome 70% of the time, but has a 70% false positive rate. The end result is a coin toss that is weighted to be 70% on one side, it doesn't help you find the truth in any way.