benelliott comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 August 2007 08:34PM

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Comment author: DevilMaster 24 February 2011 01:07:19PM *  -1 points [-]

If absence of proof is not proof of absence, but absence of evidence is evidence of absence, what makes proof different from evidence?

Example: we currently have no evidence supporting the existence of planets orbiting stars in other galaxies, because our telescopes are not powerful enough to observe them. Should we take this as evidence that no galaxy except ours has planets around its stars?

Another example: before the invention of the microscope, there was no evidence supporting the existence of bacteria because there were no means to observe them. Should've this fact alone been interpreted as evidence of absence of bacteria (even though bacteria did exist before microscopes were invented)?

Comment author: benelliott 10 May 2011 04:50:50PM *  1 point [-]

If absence of proof is not proof of absence, but absence of evidence is evidence of absence, what makes proof different from evidence?

Proof is absolute, evidence is probabilistic.

Example: we currently have no evidence supporting the existence of planets orbiting stars in other galaxies, because our telescopes are not powerful enough to observe them. Should we take this as evidence that no galaxy except ours has planets around its stars?

No, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence if evidence is impossible, but it is evidence of absence if evidence is possible but absent.

(try saying that quickly 3 times :)