Frank_Ch._Eigler comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 August 2007 08:34PM

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Comment author: Frank_Ch._Eigler 12 August 2007 09:24:48PM 16 points [-]

Perhaps this criticism of the California governor assumes an over-naive probabilistic modelling, with only two events ("no acts of espionage" => "fifth column exists [or not]"). In reality, there existed some non-public information about an existing japanese spy network (MAGIC decodes; informants) that is unlikely to have been mentioned in a public hearing.

Perhaps the reasoning was more like this: "We know that they are already here. We know that some fraction of the population sympathizes with the mother nation. If the fifth column did not exist in an organized form, we might have seen some sabotage already. Since there hasn't been any, maybe they are holding back for a major strike."