Michael_Sullivan comments on Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 August 2007 08:34PM

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Comment author: Michael_Sullivan 14 August 2007 06:52:10PM -2 points [-]

If sabotage increases the probability, lack of sabotage necessarily decreases the probability.

That's true in the averages, but different types of sabotage evidence may have different effects on the probability, some negative, some positive. It's conceivable, though unlikely, for sabotage to on average decrease the probability.