Well, I too expect some form of something that we would call "AI", before 2100. I can even buy into some form of accelerating progress, albeit the progress would be accelerating before the "AI" due to the tools using relevant technologies, and would not have that sharp of a break. I even do agree that there is a certain level of risk involved in all the future progress including progress of the software.

I have a sense you misunderstood me. I picture this parallel world where legitimate, rational inferences about the AI risk exist, and where this risk is worth working at in 2013 and stands out among the other risks, as well as any other pre-requisites for making MIRI worthwhile hold. And in this imaginary world, I expect massively larger support than "Steven Hawkins hooked up with FHI" or what ever you are outlining here.

You do frequently lament that the AI risk is underfunded, under-supported, and there's under-awareness about it. In the hypothetical world, this is not the case and you can only lament that the rational spending should be 2 billions rather than 1 billion.

edit: and of course, my true rejection is that I do not actually see rational inferences leading there. The imaginary world stuff is just a side-note to explain how non-experts generally look at it.

edit2: and I have nothing against FHI's existence and their work. I don't think they are very useful, or address any actual safety issues which may arise, though, but with them I am fairly certain they aren't doing any harm either (Or at least, the possible harm would be very small). Promoting the idea that AI is possible within 100 years, however, is something that increases funding for AI all across the board.