In particular, on your list, I expect people with fairly low credentials to fare much worse
No doubt! I wasn't comparing highly credentialed people to low-credentialed people in general. I was comparing highly credentialed people to Bostrom, Yudkowsky, Shulman, etc.
But why exactly would you expect conventional researchers in AI and related technologies (also including provable software, as used in the aerospace industry, and a bunch of other topics), with credentials and/or accomplishments in said fields, to fare worse on that list's score?
Furthermore, with regards to the rationality, risks of mistake, and such... very little was done that can be checked for correctness in a clear cut way - most is of such nature that even when wrong it would not be possible to conclusively demonstrate it wrong. The few things that c...
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are: