bigjeff5 comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong
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Comments (76)
You either have a new interval, or new information suggesting the probability density for the interval has changed.
Conservation of Expected Evidence does not mean Ignorance of Observed Evidence.
This is just a restatement of the black swan problem, and it's a non-issue. If evidence does not exist yet it does not exist yet. It doesn't cast doubt on your methods of reasoning, nor does it allow you make a baseless guess of what might come in the future.