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ctuck comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong
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I would say, rather, that:
G = God exists
N = The existence of God is not revealed directly to humanity
M = Miracles occur
...and we're talking about P(G|N) and P(G|M) and not talking about P(T) at all.
More generally, T seems to be a red herring here.
That said, I agree that there's a presumption that M implies ~N... that is, that if miracles occurred, that would constitute the direct revelation of God's existence.
And yes, one could argue instead that no, miracles aren't a revelation of God's existence at all, but rather a test of faith. A lot depends here on what counts as a miracle; further discussion along this line would benefit from specificity.
I agree that T in and of itself is problematic.
Your N seems more likely what the author intended, now that you point it out.
Though I still don't think anyone who thought about it for more than 20 seconds would ever assert that N could be used as evidence for G.
But using that as a model would probably serve well to underscore the point of Conservation of Evidence
If the fact that God has not been revealed directly to humanity is evidence for the existence of God. Then should God ever reveal himself directly to humanity, it would be evidence against his existence.
That's probably the statement Eliezer intended to make.
(nods)
And I would not be in the least surprised to find theologians arguing that the absence of direct evidence of God's existence is itself proof of the existence of God, and I would be somewhat surprised to find that none ever had, but I don't have examples.
That said, straw theism is not particularly uncommon on LW; when people want a go-to example of invalid reasoning, belief in god comes readily to hand. It derives from a common cultural presumption of atheism, although there are some theists around.