aspera comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong
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Occam's Razor is non-Bayesian? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it falls naturally out of Bayesian model comparison, from the normalization factors, or "Occam factors." As I remember, the argument is something like: given two models with independent parameters {A} and {A,B}, the P(AB model) \propto P(AB are correct) and P(A model) \propto P(A is correct). Then P(AB model) <= P(A model).
Even if the argument is wrong, I think the result ends up being that more plausible models tend to have fewer independent parameters.
You're not really wrong. The thing is that "Occam's razor" is a conceptual principle, not one mathematically defined law. A certain (subjectively very appealing) formulation of it does follow from Bayesianism.
Your math is a bit off, but I understand what you mean. If we have two sets of models, with no prior information to discriminate between their members, then the prior gives less probability to each model in the larger set than in the smaller one.
More generally, if deciding that model 1 is true gives you more information than deciding that model 2 is true, that means that the maximum entropy given model 1 is lower than that given model 2, which in turn means (under the maximum entropy principle) that model 1 was a-priori less likely.
Anyway, this is all besides the discussion that inspired my previous comment. My point was that even without Popper and Jaynes to enlighten us, science was making progress using other methods of rationality, among which is a myriad of non-Bayesian interpretations of Occam's razor.
Crystal clear. Sorry to distract from the point.