ctuck comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong

68 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 August 2007 03:55PM

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Comment author: Kindly 10 July 2013 05:35:30PM 0 points [-]

P(H) is the belief where you start, and P(H|E) and P(H|~E) are the possible beliefs where you end. You could go to one with probability P(E) and to the other with probability P(~E), but due to the identity you quote, in expectation you do not move at all.