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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong

68 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 August 2007 03:55PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 11:21:01PM 12 points [-]

a more general law, which I would name Conservation of Expected Evidence

I thought it was pretty clear that I was coining the phrase. I'm certainly not the first person to point out the law. E.g. Robin notes that our best estimate of anything should have no predictable trend. In any case, I posted the mathematical derivation and you certainly don't have to take my word about anything.