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CarlShulman comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong

68 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 August 2007 03:55PM

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Comment author: CarlShulman 17 August 2007 04:54:25PM 2 points [-]

"no one expected to encounter a white swan, and everyone expected to encounter another black swan on occasion. A white swan is huge evidence against, a black swan is tiny additional evidence for." I presume you meant the reverse of this?