Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Conservation of Expected Evidence - Less Wrong

68 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 13 August 2007 03:55PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 February 2008 09:41:41PM 1 point [-]

Um, no, if a study shows that people who chew gum also have a gene GXTP27 or whatever, which also protects against cancer, I cannot plan to increase my subjective probability that I have gene GXTP27 by starting to chew gum.

See also: "evidential decision theory", why nearly all decision theorists do not believe in.