arundelo comments on Book Review: Heuristics and Biases (MIRI course list) - Less Wrong

24 Post author: So8res 02 September 2013 03:37PM

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Comment author: arundelo 02 September 2013 05:21:47PM *  3 points [-]

Argument strength is given much, much more credence than argument weight.

Do you have definitions for these terms? Some brief searching didn't help me, but from the context you do give this is what I gathered:

Say we are measuring the strength and weight of the argument, "Alice tested positive for Foo's Disease and therefore has Foo's Disease". The argument's strength increases as the test's false positive rate decreases. The argument's weight increases as the disease's base rate (its frequency in Alices's demographic group) decreases.

Is that about right?

Is argument strength completely independent of base rate? Is argument weight dependent solely on base rate?

Comment author: So8res 03 September 2013 03:06:22PM *  3 points [-]

Argument strength is how much the evidence favors your hypothesis (the proportion of heads to tails when you're checking if a coin is weighted).

Argument weight is the number of tests that you've done. (Have you flipped the coin three times, or one hundred?)

People treat 5 tests, all heads as better evidence of a weighted coin than 1000 tests, 55% heads. The latter is actually more indicitive of a weighted coin (assuming sane priors).

Sorry, I should have made this more clear. I'll edit the post.