Yes, I know. It's less about somewhat realistic expectations and more about visceral motivation. Especially when other people's choices are involved (meat consumption, using research in the rights ways, improvements that only pan out if people are somewhat rational and benevolent etc).

Technically, we can treat other people as systems to be manipulated, and I guess it even works. But psychologically, it feels dissatisfying. In addition, it feels low status, as it gives others the power to destroy my money's worth. This is even true for crucial research, the applications of which can just be banned, never used in benevolent ways, rejected by an irrational public for bad reasons, etc.

The methods to measure probabilities and impacts are also somewhat unclear to me. As is estimating unintended consequences.