So a priori, the very fact that two smart people, Robin and Eliezer, take opposite sides of an issue should make us reluctant to assign any strong probabilities... I think :P
Suppose experts' opinions were assigned by coin flip with a weighted coin, where the weight of the coin is the probability that makes best use of available information.
If we go to the first expert and they hold opinion Heads, what do we think the weighting of the coin is? 2/3. But then another expert comes along with opinion Tails, and so our probability goes back to 1/2. Last, we meet another expert with opinion Heads. But jaded as we are, we only update our probability to 3/5 - or 0.6 rather than 0.66666.
So, sure. :P Although this sort of model makes less sense once you start evaluating the rhyme and reason behind the experts' opinions rather than just taking them as opaque data points.
I don't really trust Robin and Eliezer to be well-calibrated about what they don't know. One way to become a public figure is to make interesting predictions, and both have used this strategy. So polling public-figure-ish smart people as opposed to smart people in general will tend to get us a more confidently expressed and interesting-for-the-sake-of-interesting set of opinions. Also, neither has a PredictionBook account that's actively used (as far as I know; I've recently been using a pseudonym and maybe one of them is as well).
For some perspective, ...
This is a thread where people can ask questions that they would ordinarily feel embarrassed for not knowing the answer to. The previous "stupid" questions thread is at almost 500 questions in about a month, so I think it's time for a new one.
Also, I have a new "stupid" question.