Blueberry comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

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Comment author: Sebastian_Hagen 07 December 2009 08:52:46PM *  3 points [-]

Fischhoff and Beyth (1975) presented students with historical accounts of unfamiliar incidents, such as a conflict between the Gurkhas and the British in 1814.

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Fischhoff, B., and Beyth, R. 1975. I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13: 1-16.

I originally came across the same citation in Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks. It refers to this paper, correct? Title, authors, publication and date appear to match.

I've looked at that PDF, and I don't see where the paper talks about an experiment with questions regarding a British-Gurkha conflict. The PDF is searchable. There's no full-text search matches for "Gurkha" or "British". "students" yields matches on exactly one page, and that's about an experiment using a different set of questions. I haven't read the entire thing in any depth, so I may have missed a description of the British/Gurkha study. If so, where in the paper is it?

Comment author: Blueberry 07 December 2009 10:43:05PM 0 points [-]

This looks like it might be helpful: http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/media/pdfs/fischhoff/HindsightEarlyHistory.pdf

Looks like that particular experiment was discussed in a different paper.