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Robin_Hanson2 comments on Hindsight bias - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 August 2007 09:58PM

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Comment author: Robin_Hanson2 16 August 2007 10:45:17PM 4 points [-]

So the obvious solution is to write down forecasts in advance. And of course in the particular cases where hindsight bias is larger, this will produce a large benefit. But some might worry about hindsight bias in recommending advance forecasts, as it is not so easy to tell ahead of time which situations will have the worst hindsight bias. How can we get an unbiased estimate of the value of overcoming hindsight bias with advance forecasts?