= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
RobbBB comments on Three ways CFAR has changed my view of rationality - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (58)
That's an interesting result! It doesn't surprise me that people frequently confuse which complex outcomes they can and can't control, though. Do you think I'm wrong about the intension of "luck"? Or do you think most people are just wrong about its extension?
I think the definition of 'luck' as 'complex outcomes I have only minor control over' is useful, as well as the definition of 'luck' as 'the resolution of uncertain outcomes.' For both of them, I think there's meat to the sentence "rationalists should not be predictably unlucky": in the first, it means rationalists should exert a level of effort justified by the system they're dealing with, and not be dissuaded by statistically insignificant feedback; in the second, it means rationalists should be calibrated (and so P_10 or worse events happen to them 10% of the time, i.e. rationalists are not surprised that they lose money at the casino).
Ahh, thanks! This helps me better understand what Eliezer was getting at. I was having trouble thinking my way into other concepts of 'luck' that might avoid triviality.