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polarix comments on The Ultimate Newcomb's Problem - Less Wrong
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2-box on one-off [Edit: on rereading, this comes off as more confident than I intended. This was what I thought I would do in the 2 minutes, which in retrospect were spent unproductively], but the one-off nature of the problem is modified by the third paragraph, which means that strategy might mean one-boxing previously got me no money. I would interpret that as less-than-perfect accuracy (which might be the source of the 99.9% probability) How does Omega deal with mixed strategies?
I did not interpret paragraph 3 to contain any information about prior payouts... For instance, if one were to 1-box (successfully!) in every case that did not have such a lottery hedge, it would appear consistent with the problem statement to me.
it tells you that there were prior payouts.
Ah, well, it tells us that there were prior games.
If I didn't get prior payouts from those games, the updates on that is way bigger than any other reasoning such as what we're doing on this thread.