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TheOtherDave comments on Hindsight Devalues Science - Less Wrong
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Out of curiosity, which time was Yudkowsky actually telling the truth? When he said those five assertions were lies, or when he said the previous sentence was a lie? I don't want to make any guesses yet. This post broke my model; I need to get a new one before I come back.
You might find it a worthwhile exercise to decide what your current model is, first.
That is, how likely do you consider those five statements?
Once you know that, you can research the actual data and discover how much your model needs updating, and in what directions. That way you can construct a new model that is closer to observed data.
If you don't know what your current model is, that's much harder.