Jess_Riedel comments on How well will policy-makers handle AGI? (initial findings) - Less Wrong
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The invention of nuclear weapons seems like the overwhelmingly best case study.
Nuclear weapons differed in that the world was already at war when they were developed, so policy makers would be in a different mindset and have different incentives. But otherwise, I think the parallels are as good as you could possibly hope for. The only other competitor is the (overly broad) case of molecular nano-tech, but this hasn't actually happened yet so you don't have much to go on. In contrast, the Manhattan Project is extensively documented.