Low rate of retention is a product of many reasons simultaneously, including the extreme weird stuff creeping people out. If your local gym is creepy, it will have lower retention rate, than same gym that is not creepy.
My mental model of failed retention includes the general low retention rate, in combination with the weird things that cult does creeping people out, on top of that.
How often do you see a cult leader going 'well, sure, we could have thousands more members if we wanted (people are pounding down the doors to convert), and majorly increase our donations and financial holdings, but gosh, we wouldn't want to sell out like that!'
I rarely see people reflect on their motives or goal structure. You often see a cult leader abusing a cultist, which leads insufficiently dedicated cultists to leave. Such actions sacrifice quantity for "quality".
Recruiting through family and friends is a major strategy of cults - indeed, perhaps the only strategy which does not have abysmally low success rates.
Yes, and a lot of the time that fails, and the family members start actively denouncing the cult, and the member has to choose between the family and friends, and the cult, at which point, well, few choose the cult.
Low rate of retention is a product of many reasons simultaneously, including the extreme weird stuff creeping people out.
As pointed out in the OP by one author, the cults in question have in many ways been assimilated by the mainstream and so are far less 'weird' than ever before. Has that helped their retention rates? Environmentalism and meditation are completely mainstream now, have the Hare Krishnas staged a comeback?
If your local gym is creepy, it will have lower retention rate, than same gym that is not creepy.
The counterfactual is not availab...
Some old SIAI work of mine. Researching this was very difficult because the relevant religious studies area, while apparently completely repudiating most public beliefs about the subject (eg. the effectiveness of brainwashing, how damaging cults are, how large they are, whether that’s even a meaningful category which can be distinguished from mainstream religions rather than a hidden inference - a claim, I will note, which is much more plausible when you consider how abusive Scientology is to its members as compared to how abusive the Catholic Church has been etc), prefer to publish their research in book form, which makes it very hard to review any of it. Some of the key citation were papers - but the cult panic was so long ago that most of them are not online or have been digitized! I recently added some cites and realized I had not touched the draft in a year; so while this collection of notes is not really up to my preferred standards, I’m simply posting it for what it’s worth. (One lesson to take away from this is that controlling uploaded human brains will not be nearly as simple & easy as applying classic ‘brainwashing’ strategies - because those don’t actually work.)
Reading through the literature and especially the law review articles (courts flirted disconcertingly much with licensing kidnapping and abandoning free speech), I was reminded very heavily - and not in a good way - of the War on Terror.
Old American POW studies:
Started the myth of effective brain-washing. But in practice, cult attrition rates are very high! (As makes sense: if cults did not have high attrition rates, they would long ago have dominated the world due to exponential growth.) This attrition claim is made all over the literature, with some example citations being:
a back of the envelope estimate for Scientology by Steve Plakos in 2000:
Iannaccone 2003, “The Market for Martyrs” (quasi-review)
Singer in particular has been heavily criticized; “Cult/Brainwashing Cases and Freedom of Religion”, Richardson 1991:
“Overcoming The Bondage Of Victimization: A Critical Evaluation of Cult Mind Control Theories”, Bob and Gretchen Passantino Cornerstone Magazine 1994:
Gomes, Unmasking the Cults (Wikipedia quote):
“Psychological Manipulation and Society”, book review of Spying in Guruland: Inside Britain’s Cults, Shaw 1994
Anthony & Robbins 1992, “Law, Social Science and the ‘Brainwashing’ Exception to the First Amendment”:
“Brainwashed! Scholars of cults accuse each other of bad faith”, by Charlotte Allen, Lingua Franca Dec/Jan 1998: