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Ishaan comments on Notes on logical priors from the MIRI workshop - Less Wrong
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What you're describing is not Counterfactual Mugging, it's just a bet, and the right decision is indeed to use the calculator. The interesting feature of Counterfactual Mugging is that Omega is using counterfactual reasoning to figure out what you would have done if the coin had come out differently. You get the money only if you would have paid up in the counterfactual branch. In that case the right decision is to not use the calculator, I think. Though other people might have different intuitions, I'm sort of an outlier in how much I'm willing to follow UDT-ish reasoning.
Are you saying that Omega won't even offer you the deal unless it used counter-factual reasoning to figure out what you'll do once it offers?
So if Omega has already offered you the deal and you know the coin came out against your favor, and you find you are physically capable of rejecting the deal, you should reject the deal. You've already fooled Omega into thinking you'll take the deal.
It's just that if you've successfully "pre-committed" to the extent that a 100% accurate Omega has predicted you will take the offer, you'll be physically incapable of not taking the offer. It's just like Newcombs problem.
And if that's true, it means that the problem we are facing is, how to make an algorithm that can't go back on its pre-commitments even after it gains the knowledge of how the bet came out.
Retraction was unintentional - I thought this was a duplicate comment and "unretract" isn't a thing.
You can delete and then re-post a retracted comment if it has no replies yet.