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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing - Less Wrong
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I started to rephrase "how often might I be wrong?" into "how many of my acquintances (who are alike me) might be wrong on this question?". And "which range am I confident this value must be in?" becomes "which range of values might my friends guess this to be?".