Oscar_Cunningham comments on Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 20 September 2013 08:19PM

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Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 21 September 2013 10:13:52AM *  12 points [-]

Nope. People thought that this might be what's going on, so they tested it. People definitely weren't misinterpreting the question; the conjunction fallacy really is a thing.

Comment author: Thomas 21 September 2013 12:45:20PM -1 points [-]

What is more likely?

A: People gave wrong answer AND weren't misinterpreting the question

B: People gave wrong answer

Comment author: somervta 21 September 2013 12:51:20PM 9 points [-]

Wrong framing*. The question is between

A: People gave wrong answer AND weren't misinterpreting the question

B: People gave wrong answer AND were misinterpreting the question

*Unless that was a joke, in which case disregard