Oscar_Cunningham comments on Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing - Less Wrong
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Comments (23)
Nope. People thought that this might be what's going on, so they tested it. People definitely weren't misinterpreting the question; the conjunction fallacy really is a thing.
What is more likely?
A: People gave wrong answer AND weren't misinterpreting the question
B: People gave wrong answer
Wrong framing*. The question is between
A: People gave wrong answer AND weren't misinterpreting the question
B: People gave wrong answer AND were misinterpreting the question
*Unless that was a joke, in which case disregard