whowhowho comments on Fake Explanations - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 August 2007 09:13PM

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Comment author: royf 02 June 2012 07:13:32AM *  9 points [-]

You are overstating the case by a large margin.

[Saying "I don't know"] is still the rational thing to say when, in fact, you don't know.

Saying "I don't know" may be, to a large degree, the true state of your belief when you use probability theory. But in this case it's not the rational thing to say when you use decision theory. "I don't know" is true, but it is a non-answer to the question, and doesn't get you points. It's a different matter whether this point system is effective or moral, but as long as it's there, that's what you play by.

You can easily do worse than maximum entropy if you guess at random.

If you base your guess correctly on an incomplete model of reality, which you've constructed correctly from past observations, you can never do worse, on average, than maximum entropy. More evidence can never lead to less information (as per the Data Processing Inequality).

Furthermore, "getting it right" [...] does not necessarily mean that you possess any anticipation-controllers.

On the contrary, it mean exactly that. Being rewarded for predictive powers improves your model of the world, whereas "I don't know" is an excuse for not knowing.

In fact, the mechanism employed by the teacher, for all its flaws, achieves 3 important goals:

  • It motivates students to pay attention, raises their level of alertness, activates their brains.
  • It rewards students to engage their past observations to generate the most accurate belief they can about the right answer. In the process, they build a better model of the world, and they make their unknown unknowns a little more known.
  • By forcing students to generate a belief and commit to it before the correct answer is revealed, their hindsight bias is reduced.
Comment author: Chrysophylax 29 January 2013 10:58:09PM *  1 point [-]

But in this case it's not the rational thing to say when you use decision theory.

I disagree. The proper response to not knowing the answer is to admit to not knowing and then give your best guess, not to try to hide your ignorance, because if you succeed then the teacher doesn't know you need help. A student who is more concerned with not displaying ignorance than with not being ignorant is not trying to learn, which is not rational. That which can be destroyed by the truth should be, and it probably won't be if you try to avoid finding out what the truth is.

You can easily do worse than maximum entropy if you guess at random.

If you base your guess correctly on an incomplete model of reality, which you've constructed correctly from past observations, you can never do worse, on average, than maximum entropy. More evidence can never lead to less information (as per the Data Processing Inequality).

The key phrase here is "on average". If you guess at random from all possible explanations of a given phenomenon, you will, on average, die before guessing the correct answer. There is a reason the monkeys with typewriters are given infinite time to reproduce Hamlet.

Moreover, as the set of answers considered increases in size, the expected utility from giving any one answer tends towards the expected utility of a wrong answer. As long as giving the wrong answer gives less utility than admitting ignorance, admitting ignorance is almost always the utility maximising option if you don't know.

Furthermore, "getting it right" [...] does not necessarily mean that you possess any anticipation-controllers.

On the contrary, it mean exactly that. Being rewarded for predictive powers improves your model of the world, whereas "I don't know" is an excuse for not knowing.

If I write down a number and then take a number from a table of random numbers, and the numbers are the same, does this mean that I'm psychic? Because if getting the correct answer means that I have useful anticipation controllers then I must be.

"I don't know" is not an excuse for not knowing. That makes no sense whatsoever. "I don't know" is a statement about whether I know something or not, not a statement about whether I ought to know. If you can't admit fallibility then you will never learn anything.

The points you make about the benefits of testing students' knowledge are true. Unfortunately, they miss the point - while it is important not to penalise guessing incorrectly, so as not to dissuade admitting ignorance, it is much better to actively reward admitting that you have tried and failed. If a confused student does not always seek an explanation, the reward for seeking explanations isn't large enough yet. If students are content to remain ignorant, something is seriously wrong with your system for making students less ignorant.

Comment author: whowhowho 30 January 2013 01:24:43AM 0 points [-]

If you guess at random from all possible explanations of a given phenomenon, you will, on average, die before guessing the correct answer

How true