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orthonormal comments on Science as Attire - Less Wrong
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What about the probability of "2+2=4 and not 2+2=4." Pretty sure that's zero, and if not we got some problems I believe.
Short answer: I can never assign probability exactly 0, because there's a tiny chance that I'm currently hallucinating the "obvious" contradiction, etc.
Longer answer: How To Convince Me That 2+2=3, and my comment on it.