sakranut comments on Estimation as a game - Less Wrong

8 Post author: AnatoliP 30 September 2013 09:24AM

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Comment author: sakranut 30 September 2013 06:07:22PM *  6 points [-]

This is a game I play often when it comes to estimating time - probably the most frequent estimation that I conduct in day-to-day life. When on a New York City subway, for instance, I'll make a 50% confidence range guess on how long it will take the subway to get to my stop. The game works equally well when waiting for a light to change, a lecture to end, an elevator to arrive, etc.

I started doing this at a fairly young age when - in response to asking "are we there yet," - my parents told me to guess how long it would take to reach a travel destination.

Comment author: AnatoliP 30 September 2013 06:20:54PM 1 point [-]

Great examples. Next step is calibrating the confidence range based on multiple experiments.