"You want to find out whether the drug has certain (specific, detectable) effects."
A p-value isn't the probability that a drug has certain (specific, detectable) effects. 1-p isn't either.
You are really determined to fight they hypothetical, aren't you?
No, I'm accepting it. The probability of a drug having zero effects is 0. If your statistics give you an answer that a drug has a probability other than 0 for a drug having zero effects your statistics are wrong.
I think your answer suggests the idea that an experiment might provide actionable information.
And how would they help you? There is the little issue of noise. You cannot detect any effects below the noise floor and for n=1 that floor is going to be pretty high.
But you still claim that every experiment provides an actionable probability when interpreted by a frequentist.
If you give a bayesian your priors and then get a posterior probability from the bayesian that probability is in every case actionable.
The probability of a drug having zero effects is 0
Again: the probability that a drug has no specific, detectable effects is NOT zero.
But you still claim that every experiment provides an actionable probability when interpreted by a frequentist.
Huh? What? I don't even... Please quote me.
If you give a bayesian your priors and then get a posterior probability from the bayesian that probability is in every case actionable.
What do you call an "actionable" probability? What would be an example of a "non-actionable" probability?
For those who haven't heard, NIH and NSF are no longer processing grants, leading to many negative downstream effects.
I've been directing my attention elsewhere lately and don't have anything informative to say about this. However, my uninformed intuition is that people who care about effective altruism (research in general, infrastructure development, X-risk mitigation, life-extension...basically everything, actually) or have transhumanist leanings should be very concerned.
The consequences have already been pretty disastrous. To provide just one, immediate example, the article says that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention has shut down. I think that this is almost certain to directly cause a nontrivial number of deaths. Each additional day that this continues could have huge negative impact down the line, perhaps delaying some key future discoveries by years. This event *might* be a small window of opportunity to prevent a lot of harm very cheaply.
So the question is:
1) Can we do anything to remedy the situation?
2) If so, is it worth doing it? (Opportunity costs, etc)