Just to be clear beyond my closing aside that I remain an unbeliever, I am not defending Wright's (or Lewis's, or Chesterton's) argument here against anything but the knockdown that "oh well, something went wrong with his brain". Nor do I agree with Gwern's attribution of Wright's account of his pre-conversion self to hindsight bias, or "hindsight bias" becomes a universal counterargument against every account of past events.

More generally, one person's priors are not an argument against another's posteriors.