Robin_Hanson2 comments on Fake Causality - Less Wrong
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An analogous principle operates in rigorous probabilistic reasoning about causality. ... We count each piece of evidence exactly once; no update message ever "bounces" back and forth. The exact algorithm may be found in Judea Pearl's classic "Probabilistic Reasoning ...
Actually, Pearl's algorithm only works for a tree of cause/effects. For non-trees it is provably hard, and it remains an open question how best to update. I actually need a good non-tree method without predictable errors for combinatorial market scoring rules.