I find this argument convincing, but I also found the subsequence he's criticizing convincing. I'm having difficulty working out which one is actually correct. I was predisposed to believe the nincompoops argument at the time (still am, really), so maybe I should apply bias correction in favor of this one. Or maybe it's just that there's an element of truth in both.

I'd be really interested to see a response from Eliezer to this essay.